The decarbonization of the EU heating sector through electrification: A parametric analysis’
In this paper, we examine the electrification of the heating sector as a decarbonisation strategy, discuss its effectiveness, and preliminary assess its impact on the European power system.
A quick summary and two figures of the study showing (i) CO2 emissions of heat pumps compared to gas boilers in the different countries and (ii) average end-consumer costs of heat pumps versus gas boilers in the different countries.
- In more than half of the MSs, heat pumps are already less carbon intensive than gas boilers. Even in countries with a carbon-intense power mix, heat pumps are not far from parity. Heat pumps are on track to be less carbon intensive than gas boilers across all MSs, since the decarbonization of their power system is continuing.
- The heat pump deployment trend is most promising in Sweden and Finland, aiming at shares beyond 40% for 2030. Both countries were early adopters of a carbon tax, and currently have the highest rates implemented in the EU. The data indicates that end-consumer costs for heat are a strong influence on heat-pump deployment. Countries with a low uptake might therefore consider implementing a carbon tax, as it increases the heat costs from fossil-fueled competitors, as well as decreasing electricity related levies and taxes.
- Heat electrification is an effective decarbonization option, which can reduce the EU’s total energy related emissions by up to 17% if paired with simultaneous expansion of low-carbon energy. Heat pump deployment today enables further abatement in the future, as the decarbonization of the power system continues.
- Heat electrification has to be accompanied by simultaneous power sector decarbonization, otherwise the abatement will be very expensive in the short term (in the range of between 200-300 EUR/tCO2).
- An additional heat pump capacity of 1.1 TWth can be installed in the EU with the current capacity of the power system. This would cover 32% of space heating demand in buildings. Basic demand shifting measures, such as those relying on the thermal inertia of the building stock, drastically increase the heat pump capacity that can be installed (from 1.1 to 1.6 TW). This increase, which would allow heat pumps to cover 45% of the space heating demand, highlights the importance of incentivizing a flexible dispatch.
