Global sea level to rise by up to 1.2 metres despite Paris agreement, say scientists
‘Even if we stop emitting today, the effects of our past emissions will be felt for centuries to come and every year that we delay action has consequences for the future'
Global sea levels are set to rise dramatically, threatening the homes of some 100 million people, even if the strictest greenhouse gas emissions targets are met, according to a new study.
The research, compiled by climate scientists from a number of international institutions, analysed the long-term impacts of different emission levels and concluded oceans will rise by over one metre even if the world sticks to the Paris agreement.
Overall, the researchers estimated a global rise of between 0.7 and 1.2 metres – adding that if emissions are not curbed as soon as possible it will be even greater.
More than 100 million people are currently thought to live within one metre of the high tide level.
The Paris agreement was signed by nearly 200 countries including the US under former president Barack Obama's administration in December 2015. Donald Trump has since begun the process of withdrawing the US from the deal.
It calls for emissions to peak as soon as possible before going into decline, in an effort to limit the increase in global average temperatures to “well below 2C above pre-industrial levels” and to “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C".
The new research lays out the consequences of delaying the action it specifies.
According to the analysis, for every five years this peak is delayed after 2020, an extra 20cm can be added to estimates for global sea-level rise.
Although the projections look far ahead to 2300, the scientists emphasised the dramatic impact short-term greenhouse gas emissions in coming decades would have on sea levels for centuries to come.
"Our results show that there are quantifiable consequences of delaying action,” said Dr Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and one of the study’s co-authors.
